Tablets, Ereaders Signaling the End of Physical Books?

As the abundance of smartphones and tablets continues to grow, the ebook industry grows along with it, pushing out the traditional paper-based book.

Earlier we reported that Amazon saw its best holiday season ever with its Kindle line, selling over 4 million units of the Kindle Fire tablet, the Kindle Touch and the updated barebones Kindle e-reader. The sale of Amazon's tablet points to consumers that want an affordable device that surfs the internet, plays movies, plays HD games and provides a means to read e-books. The latter two devices were ranked as #2 and #3 on Amazon's best-seller list, indicating that consumers may prefer reading an ebook rather than flipping through an old-school hardback.

The AFP has published an interesting article that paints the demise of the traditional paper-based book as consumers flock to electronic devices to flip through virtual pages. "It is only a matter of time before we stop killing trees and all publications become digital," Creative Strategies president and principal analyst Tim Bajarin told AFP on Thursday.

And he may be right -- many organizations are going "paperless," asking patrons to ditch the customary paper bill for one that can be sent via email. In 2011, digital books earned around $3.2 billion in revenue (possibly due to alleged price fixing). However by 2016, that amount is expected to triple to $9.7 billion thanks to the combined momentum of smartphones and tablets. Let's face it: it's easier to store a novel on a pocket-sized phone than cramming a 1,000-page Stephen King hardback or paperback under your arm.

So when will print be truly dead? Bajarin said it will be at least another decade. "For one thing, there is a generation of people above 45 who grew up with this reading format and for many this will remain the most comfortable way for them to consume content for quite a while," he said. "However, younger generations are already moving rapidly to digital representations of publications and, over time, they will be using e-books and tablets to consume all of their publications."

BISG deputy executive director Angela Bole claims that the ebook market is developing very fast, with consumer attitudes and behaviors changing over the course of months, rather than years. Currently most potential ebook readers are more concerned about the price of the actual reader itself than the virtual book. This is partially why Amazon and Barnes & Noble have released devices with low price points. As with other consumer devices, most of the revenue is generated through software.

But even when digital publishing begins to dominate the industry, there will be situations where hardbacks and paperbacks will still be preferred. For some, there's nothing like reading a hardback version of a Stephen King novel or one of Tolkien's Middle-earth masterpieces. Many simply like to collect, treasuring the printed artwork on the front and back, preserving the stiffness of their spines. But that may eventually fade as the new generation of readers grow older and the paper-bound readers pass on.

"I think it is a myth that [digital publishing] is going to kill the print book business," Weiner said. "Will it force publishers to think differently? Absolutely, but it doesn't spell the demise of print (book) publishing."

Unfortunately, newspapers are taking the brunt of the digital attack. These institutions spend a lot of money printing and distributing daily editions that can't be kept as fresh as stories on the Internet. Subscriptions numbers are dropping because consumers are flocking to websites for their fill of news instead of waiting for yesterday's stories to arrive torn or wet. Eventually most will be pushed to digital editions. Magazines, on the other hand, are currently trying to keep their footing while providing both digital and paper-based content.

"Magazines are still figuring it out," Weiner said. "I think they are in evolution."